NOVEMBER AT A GLANCE

The Bank of Canada may choose to act more forcefully to bring inflation back toward target levels

While typically a quiet month of market activity based on seasonal patterns, November home sale and listing totals lagged below the region’s long-term averages.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,614 in November 2022, a 52.9 per cent decrease from the 3,428 sales recorded in November 2021, and a 15.2 per cent decrease from the 1,903 homes sold in October 2022.

Last month’s sales were 36.9 per cent below the 10-year November sales average.

“With the most recent core inflation metrics showing a stubborn reluctance to respond significantly to the furious pace of rate increases, the Bank of Canada may choose to act more forcefully to bring inflation back toward target levels. While it’s always difficult to predict what the bank will do with certainty, this persistent inflationary backdrop sets up the December 7 rate announcement to be yet another increase, making holiday-season home purchases something people may end up foregoing this year.” Andrew Lis, REBGV Director, Economics and Data Analytics.

“Heading into 2023, the market continues the trend of shifting toward historical averages and typical seasonal norms,” Lis said. “Whether these trends continue will depend on looming economic factors and forthcoming housing policy measures on the horizon, which hold the potential to reignite uncertainty in our market. “With that said, from a long-term structural standpoint, the current pace of listings and available inventory remain relatively tight when considered against a backdrop of continued in-migration to the province. With the recently announced increase in federal immigration targets, the state of available supply in our market remains one demand surge away from renewed price escalation, despite the inflationary environment and elevated mortgage rates.”